This is an archived sample outlook. Members get a fresh 2-week outlook every week for every state they've purchased — this week's calls plus an early read on next week.
| State | Tennessee |
|---|---|
| Report Period | August 23 – September 7, 2026 (2-week outlook) |
| Week 1 Moon Phase | Waxing Gibbous → Full Moon (Aug 27) |
| Week 2 Moon Phase | Waning Gibbous → Last Quarter (Sep 3) → Waning Crescent (Sep 7) |
| Season Stage | Summer pattern — deep structure, dawn/dusk bite |
| Regions Covered | West Tennessee — Kentucky Lake & Reelfoot; Middle Tennessee — Cumberland River Lakes; East Tennessee — TVA Lakes |
Week 1 — This Week High — inside the reliable forecast window
This report was generated Sunday evening, Aug 23. Sunday's dawn and daytime windows are already gone, so every call below starts Monday or later.
West Tennessee — Kentucky Lake & Reelfoot (Kentucky Lake, Reelfoot Lake, Mississippi River backwaters)
Best Windows
- Wed Aug 26, 5:45–9:00 AM — Pressure falling ahead of the front with the lightest wind of the week (6 mph SE), two days off the full moon.
- Wed Aug 26, 6:30 PM–dark — Falling pressure holds into the evening and moonrise lands near sunset for a minor period overlapping the dusk bite.
- Thu Aug 27, 5:45–8:30 AM — Bottoming pressure on the full moon, but a 14 mph S wind builds through the day, so get it done early.
Days to Avoid
- Fri Aug 28, all day — Classic bluebird day behind the front; pressure rising off Thursday's bottom with the wind falling out to 7 mph E, the 12–24 hour lockjaw window.
- Thu Aug 27, midday onward at Reelfoot — 14 mph S across a shallow, fully exposed lake will dirty it up fast; take the morning there or take the day elsewhere.
- Mon Aug 24 – Tue Aug 25, midday — Flat stable pressure with N/NE wind and no moon overlap; nothing here worth burning a vacation day on outside first and last light.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
This region is day 0 for frontal timing in Tennessee. Pressure sits stable Sunday through Tuesday, starts falling Wednesday, bottoms Thursday with the front crossing around midweek, then rises Friday before flattening out Saturday. Wind stays light (6–9 mph) except Thursday's 14 mph south flow. Saturday's stable pressure and 7 mph SSE put you roughly 48 hours behind the front — a legitimate recovery window at dawn if you can't get out midweek. No water temperature trend was provided for this region this week, and no TVA generation schedule was supplied — check the Kentucky Dam schedule the morning you go, because flow on the ledges will make or break Wednesday and Thursday as much as the pressure will.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Kentucky Lake — No dedicated summer depth band is defined for this lake, so work the 15–25 ft river ledges as the default deep-structure call; with pull on the ledges Wednesday morning, the falling-pressure bite should be the best of the week. Brush and stake beds up on the 8–15 ft flats are worth a look at first light only.
- Reelfoot Lake — The whole lake sits 5–15 ft, so it reacts to the pressure drop faster than Kentucky Lake — Wednesday should turn on here first. Wind is the deciding factor, not pressure: Thursday's 14 mph S is enough to muddy the open water and leave you fishing the cypress on the lee side.
- Mississippi River (TN side) — River stage and current speed outrank the weather call here; no stage data was provided this week, so check the gauge before you commit. Fish the 4–12 ft backwater sloughs and current seams off the main channel Wednesday rather than the open river.
Middle Tennessee — Cumberland River Lakes (Old Hickory, J. Percy Priest, Cordell Hull, Center Hill)
Best Windows
- Thu Aug 27, 5:45–9:00 AM — Bottoming pressure on the full moon with only 6 mph S wind; the best combination of factors anywhere in the state this week.
- Wed Aug 26, 6:15 PM–dark — Falling pressure ahead of the front, 7 mph SSE, and moonrise near sunset stacking a minor period on the dusk bite.
- Sat Aug 29, 5:45–8:30 AM — Roughly 48 hours behind the front with pressure stabilized and near-calm 4 mph E; the recovery window if you can't get out midweek.
Days to Avoid
- Fri Aug 28, all day — Bluebird day: pressure rising hard off Thursday's bottom with a dead 5 mph ENE breeze and clearing skies. Expect a shut-down bite for 12–24 hours.
- Mon Aug 24, all day — Stable pressure, 8 mph NNW behind Sunday's northwest flow, no moon overlap at fishable hours. Low-payoff day.
- Tue Aug 25, midday — Flat pressure and 5 mph ENE means no wind to position fish and nothing pushing them to feed; dawn and dusk only if you go.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
One caution on timing: this region normally runs about a day behind West Tennessee on frontal passage, but the input puts the front over both regions "around Wednesday." Lean toward the later edge — Wednesday night into Thursday morning is the likeliest crossing here, which is exactly why Thursday's bottoming pressure is the stronger of the two calls. Wind is remarkably light all week (4–11 mph), which removes wind as a limiting factor and makes the pressure and moon read cleanly. No water temperature trend was provided. No Corps of Engineers generation schedule was supplied for Old Hickory, Cordell Hull, or Center Hill this week — on all three, flow matters as much as the weather, so pull the current-day schedule before you launch.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Old Hickory Lake — No summer-specific depth band is defined here, so default to the 15–25 ft main-lake ledges, with creek channel drops at 10–20 ft as the backup. With generation running Thursday morning, the channel drops near creek mouths are the first place to check on the bottoming pressure.
- J. Percy Priest Lake — Brush and timber in the 10–20 ft range in the mid-lake creek arms; Thursday's near-calm 6 mph S means very little boat-positioning help, so stay off the crowded main-lake spots and work brush away from the pressure.
- Cordell Hull Lake — Narrowest and most riverine of the group, so current dictates the bite more than anywhere else in this region. Fish laydowns and 10–18 ft channel ledges tight to the old riverbed, and skip the trip entirely if there's no pull.
- Center Hill Lake — Deep and clear on the main lake (20–35 ft), but the crappie call is the upper creek arms — Indian Creek and the Caney Fork headwaters — in 10–20 ft of stained water, which will also respond to Wednesday's pressure drop faster than the main basin.
East Tennessee — TVA Lakes (Chickamauga, Watts Bar, Cherokee, Douglas, Norris)
Best Windows
- Thu Aug 27, 6:30–9:30 AM — Bottoming pressure on the full moon with 7 mph SSW; the only real pressure break this region gets all week.
- Thu Aug 27, 7:00 PM–dark — Pressure still at its low, moonrise near sunset adds a minor period, and the full moon keeps fish active well after dark.
- Wed Aug 26, 7:00 PM–dark — Pressure is still flat but the wind swings south at 9 mph ahead of the system, which is usually enough to set up an evening feed on the ledges.
Days to Avoid
- Fri Aug 28, all day — Pressure rising off Thursday's bottom with the wind clocking back to 6 mph NNW: bluebird conditions, and the single worst day of the week here.
- Sat Aug 29, all day — Second straight day of rising pressure with 5 mph NNE. Still inside the post-frontal recovery, and this region hasn't reset yet.
- Mon Aug 24 – Tue Aug 25, midday — Stable pressure, northerly wind, no moon overlap. Nothing to fish toward outside first and last light.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
No frontal passage time was provided for this region this week — that field came through empty. Working from the pressure trend alone (stable Sunday through Wednesday, bottoming Thursday, rising Friday and Saturday) and this region's normal two-day lag behind West Tennessee, the system most likely reaches East Tennessee late Wednesday into Thursday, which lines up with the Thursday bottom. Treat the Thursday call as solid and the Friday bluebird call as solid; the exact hour of passage isn't in the data. Wind stays light all week, 5–9 mph. No water temperature trend was provided, and no TVA generation schedule was supplied — on every lake in this group, flow drives the bite as much as the barometer does, so check the day's schedule before you pick a spot.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Chickamauga Lake — No summer depth band is defined, so default to the 20–30 ft river channel and the brush on the ledges; the 8–15 ft flats are a dawn-only proposition in August. Thursday morning with generation pulling is the play.
- Watts Bar Lake — Creek channel brush and standing timber at 10–20 ft has been the steady producer; being smaller and shallower than Cherokee or Norris, it should respond to Thursday's pressure bottom a step quicker.
- Cherokee Lake — Deep and clear, so expect fish to sit at the bottom end of the 15–25 ft range around bluff banks and brush. Light line matters here even on a good pressure day.
- Douglas Lake — More fertile and stained than the rest of this group, so fish sit shallower — work the 8–18 ft range on points and creek timber. The spring flooded-brush pattern is long over; this is a summer-pool structure bite.
- Norris Lake — Clearest, deepest lake in the state's TVA group; crappie will be deep in brush and timber at 20–35 ft. Finesse presentations and light line, and don't expect it to react to Thursday's pressure drop the way Watts Bar or Douglas will.
Week 2 — Next Week Lower — early outlook, expect this to shift
This is an early look, not a schedule. Forecast reliability drops off past about a week out, so read these as which part of the week to lean toward rather than which hour to be on the water — check next week's report for the confirmed call. Note also that the provided data only covers Sun Aug 30 through Sat Sep 5; no pressure, wind, or frontal information was supplied for Sun Sep 6 or Mon Sep 7, so no call is made for those two days.
West Tennessee — Kentucky Lake & Reelfoot (Kentucky Lake, Reelfoot Lake, Mississippi River backwaters)
Best Windows
- Monday Aug 31, early and late in the day — Pressure turning over to falling with the lightest wind of the week forecast (5 mph WNW); the cleanest-looking day of the nine, though exact timing isn't firm yet.
- Wednesday Sep 2, dawn — Pressure forecast to bottom out midweek with a manageable 10 mph SSW; a waning gibbous moon puts the major period in the pre-dawn hours.
- Thursday Sep 3, first light only — Last quarter moon puts a major period near dawn, but pressure has already flattened and 14 mph SSW builds early. Marginal, and the first call likely to change.
Days to Avoid
- Sunday Aug 30 — Front expected to cross around Sunday with pressure already shown rising behind it; bluebird risk is high, and this looks like the skip of the week.
- Friday Sep 4 – Saturday Sep 5 — Rising pressure two days running, a weak waning crescent moon, and 14 mph SW then N wind. Bad combination even before you account for forecast error.
- Thursday Sep 3, midday onward at Reelfoot — 14 mph SSW across a shallow, exposed lake will color it up; if the wind forecast holds, treat Reelfoot as a morning-only lake late in the week.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
The provided pattern has a front crossing around Sunday Aug 30, pressure rising behind it that day, falling again Monday, stable Tuesday, bottoming Wednesday, then flat Thursday and rising Friday and Saturday. That gives an early-to-midweek lean and a clearly worse back half. Wind is the bigger concern than pressure late in the week — 14 mph readings Thursday through Saturday, which is below the hard skip threshold but enough to matter on the shallow water here. No water temperature trend, no river stage, and no TVA generation schedule were provided for Week 2; generation schedules this far out generally aren't published yet, so plan to check them fresh. Nothing was supplied for Sep 6–7.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Kentucky Lake — Still a deep-structure summer pattern with no dedicated summer depth band defined, so the 15–25 ft river ledges remain the default. With no generation data available for this week, the ledge bite is genuinely unpredictable — the Monday and Wednesday calls assume some pull.
- Reelfoot Lake — Shallow throughout at 5–15 ft, so it'll swing with the pressure faster than Kentucky Lake and turn on earliest Monday. Wind, not the barometer, decides whether the back half of the week is fishable here.
- Mississippi River (TN side) — No river stage data was provided, and stage matters more than any weather call on this water. If the river is rising or falling hard, ignore the windows above and fish the slack-water backwaters at 4–12 ft or stay home.
Middle Tennessee — Cumberland River Lakes (Old Hickory, J. Percy Priest, Cordell Hull, Center Hill)
Best Windows
- Monday Aug 31, dawn and dusk — Pressure forecast to fall with a near-calm 4 mph E wind; the most favorable-looking day of the week here, though the front timing behind it is still soft.
- Wednesday Sep 2, dawn — Midweek pressure bottom with 9 mph SSW; the pre-dawn major period under a waning gibbous moon lines up with it.
- Thursday Sep 3, first light — Last quarter moon puts a major near sunrise, but pressure has gone flat and wind is up to 11 mph SSW. Take it only if the week's earlier windows don't work.
Days to Avoid
- Sunday Aug 30 — Front timed for around Sunday with pressure already rising; the input gives the same timing as West Tennessee despite this region normally running a day behind, so the Sunday-night-into-Monday window is the uncertain part. Treat Sunday as a likely skip.
- Friday Sep 4 – Saturday Sep 5 — Two consecutive days of rising pressure with a weak waning crescent moon and 11 mph wind. The worst stretch of the week.
- Tuesday Sep 1, midday — Stable pressure with a 6 mph S breeze and no moon overlap; a fill-in day at best, and only at first and last light.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
Same broad pattern as West Tennessee — front around Sunday, falling Monday, stable Tuesday, bottoming Wednesday, flat Thursday, rising Friday and Saturday — but with consistently lighter wind (4–11 mph), which is why the early-week calls here hold up slightly better. Be aware the input assigns the same Sunday frontal timing to this region as to West Tennessee, which is a day earlier than the normal lag; if the front actually crosses Sunday night, Monday's falling pressure could instead read as post-frontal, and that call would weaken. No water temperature trend was provided, and no Corps generation schedules were supplied for Old Hickory, Cordell Hull, or Center Hill — expect those to publish closer in. No data at all for Sep 6–7.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Old Hickory Lake — No summer depth key defined, so continue defaulting to 15–25 ft main-lake ledges and 10–20 ft creek channel drops. With no Corps schedule available yet for this week, treat all timing calls here as conditional on generation.
- J. Percy Priest Lake — Brush and timber at 10–20 ft in the mid-lake creek arms. The near-calm Monday forecast means slick water and heavy weekend-adjacent pressure near Nashville — get well off the main lake.
- Cordell Hull Lake — Most current-dependent lake in the region; the 10–18 ft channel ledges and laydowns only produce with flow. Without a published schedule this far out, this is the hardest lake in the state to plan around next week.
- Center Hill Lake — Fish the upper creek arms at 10–20 ft rather than the 20–35 ft main lake. Those shallower, more stained arms should react to Monday's pressure drop before the main basin does.
East Tennessee — TVA Lakes (Chickamauga, Watts Bar, Cherokee, Douglas, Norris)
Best Windows
- Wednesday Sep 2, dawn and dusk — The only pressure bottom the region gets all week, paired with 8 mph SSW; clearly the strongest day here if the timing holds.
- Thursday Sep 3, first light — Last quarter moon puts a major period near sunrise, though pressure has already gone flat and 10 mph SW is building. Worth a morning, not worth a day off.
- Tuesday Sep 1, dusk — Stable pressure and a dead 4 mph W wind, but it's the day ahead of the midweek drop, which often fishes better than the flat days behind it.
Days to Avoid
- Sunday Aug 30 — Rising pressure behind a front timed for around Sunday. Bluebird conditions are the most likely outcome, though see the note below about frontal timing for this region.
- Friday Sep 4 — Flat pressure, 12 mph WSW, and a weak waning crescent moon; nothing in the data supports fishing this one.
- Monday Aug 31, midday — Stable pressure with 7 mph NE and no moon overlap. A flat, unproductive-looking day outside the very edges.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
Flag on the frontal timing: the input puts the front over East Tennessee around Sunday, the same as West Tennessee, but this region typically runs two days behind and can be slowed further crossing the Cumberland Plateau. A Monday or Tuesday arrival is at least as plausible, which is part of why Wednesday's forecast pressure bottom is the anchor for the week rather than the front itself. After Wednesday the pattern goes stable and stays stable through Saturday, with wind slowly building from 8 to 12 mph out of the southwest — a flat, low-payoff back half. No water temperature trend was provided, and no TVA generation schedules were supplied for Week 2; on every lake in this group flow is at least as important as the barometer, so these calls are provisional on generation. No data at all was provided for Sep 6–7.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Chickamauga Lake — 20–30 ft river channel and ledge brush remains the default with no summer depth band defined for this lake. Wednesday morning with generation running is the one window here worth planning around.
- Watts Bar Lake — Creek channel brush and timber at 10–20 ft; smaller and shallower than Cherokee or Norris, so it should be the first lake in this group to respond to Wednesday's pressure drop.
- Cherokee Lake — Deep and clear at 15–25 ft on bluff banks and brush. A stable, flat week is roughly the worst pattern for a clear lake like this — Wednesday or wait.
- Douglas Lake — Stained and fertile, so fish stay shallower at 8–18 ft on points and creek timber. The best of the East Tennessee lakes to gamble on during a flat pressure stretch.
- Norris Lake — 20–35 ft in deep brush and timber, exceptionally clear water, light line required. Least likely lake in the state to reward a marginal weather window; only fish it Wednesday.
Bottom Line
If you get one trip out of these two weeks, take Thursday, August 27 on the Middle Tennessee Cumberland lakes — Old Hickory or Percy Priest at dawn. That day stacks bottoming pressure, the full moon, and a 6 mph south wind, and it's the only place in the state where all three line up cleanly. West Tennessee's equivalent is Wednesday morning, one day earlier per its day-0 frontal position, and it's nearly as good with 6 mph SE and falling pressure — but Thursday's 14 mph south wind on Reelfoot is the difference. East Tennessee, two days back in the lag, doesn't get its pressure break until Thursday either, so if you're in Chattanooga or Knoxville, Thursday is your day too. The day to stay home is Friday, August 28 — it's a textbook bluebird across all three regions simultaneously, with rising pressure and the wind falling out to 5–7 mph everywhere. Week 1 is clearly the stronger of the two weeks. Week 2's best looks are Monday Aug 31 in the west and center and Wednesday Sep 2 statewide, but nothing next week rates above a 3, the back half turns windy and high-pressure, and no generation schedules are published yet. Fish this week.