This is an archived sample outlook. Members get a fresh 2-week outlook every week for every state they've purchased — this week's calls plus an early read on next week.
| State | Kentucky |
|---|---|
| Report Period | August 25 – September 9, 2026 (2-week outlook) |
| Week 1 Moon Phase | Waxing Gibbous → Full Moon (Aug 27) → Waning Gibbous (Aug 30) |
| Week 2 Moon Phase | Waning Gibbous → Last Quarter (Sep 3) → Waning Crescent (Sep 7) |
| Season Stage | Summer pattern — deep structure, dawn/dusk bite |
| Regions Covered | Western Kentucky — Kentucky Lake; North-Central Kentucky; South-Central Kentucky — Cumberland Lakes; Eastern Kentucky — Cave Run Lake |
| Data Gaps | No generation/flow schedules were provided for any lake in either week — every lake in this state is current-driven, so check the dam operator's daily release before you commit. No water-temperature trends were provided for any region, so all depth calls below come from the static seasonal profiles, not from this week's measured water. Week 2 forecast data ends Monday Sep 7; no inputs were provided for Sep 8–9. |
Week 1 — This Week High — inside the reliable forecast window
Note on today: this report was generated late Tuesday morning (Aug 25) local time, so Tuesday's dawn window has already passed and isn't listed as a callable window anywhere below.
Western Kentucky — Kentucky Lake
Best Windows
- Wed Aug 26, 6:00–9:00 AM — Falling pressure ahead of the front with only 7 mph ESE wind, and this region is day 0 for the front so it gets the whole pre-frontal build.
- Thu Aug 27, dawn to 9:30 AM and again 7:00 PM–dark — Pressure bottoming behind the front, light 7 mph NW wind, and the Full Moon lands today with moonrise near sunset stacking a minor period onto the dusk window.
- Mon Aug 31, 6:00–8:30 AM — Pressure falling again ahead of the next system; 11 mph SSW is fishable but will push you to the lee side of the ledges.
Days to Avoid
- Wed Aug 26, midday through evening — Frontal passage is timed for Wednesday here; expect the wind to swing from ESE around to NW and the bite to shut off during the swing.
- Fri Aug 28, all day — Classic bluebird day: pressure rising hard behind the front with a 9 mph NNE wind and clearing skies. Expect 12–24 hours of lockjaw.
- Sun Aug 30, all day — Flat stable high, 10 mph S wind, and the moon already waning off full with no strong period overlapping dawn or dusk. Nothing working in your favor.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
Fronts entering Kentucky hit here first, and this one is timed for Wednesday. Tuesday is stable and light (6 mph ENE), Wednesday falls ahead of the front, Thursday bottoms out with a light NW flow, then Friday rises sharply — the bluebird day. Saturday and Sunday sit under a stable, unremarkable high before pressure starts falling again Monday with a freshening SSW wind (11 mph). No water-temperature trend was provided for this region, so treat the summer depth call as the seasonal baseline rather than a temperature-driven read.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Kentucky Lake — Summer pattern puts fish on the 15–25 ft creek channel ledges and standing timber; TVA mainstem generation matters more than the weather call here, and no generation schedule was provided for this week, so check the daily release before you launch. With current, work the ledge edges and bridge pilings on the downcurrent side; with the gates closed, the Thursday post-frontal window is a slower, tighter bite on brush.
North-Central Kentucky
Best Windows
- Wed Aug 26, 6:30–9:30 AM — Falling pressure ahead of the front with a very light 5 mph S wind; this region runs a day behind western Kentucky, so the pre-frontal build stretches later than it does on Kentucky Lake.
- Thu Aug 27, 7:00 PM–dark — Pressure bottoming, wind slack at 7 mph W, and the Full Moon rising near sunset puts a minor period right on top of the dusk window.
- Mon Aug 31, 6:30–9:00 AM — Pressure falling ahead of the next system; 12 mph SW is the upper end of comfortable on these narrow flood-control lakes, so stay in the protected creek arms.
Days to Avoid
- Wed Aug 26, afternoon into evening — Frontal passage, with this region's one-day lag likely pushing the actual crossing into late Wednesday. Wind swings S to W during the pass; expect a dead period.
- Fri Aug 28, all day — Bluebird day behind the front — pressure rising fast, 8 mph NE, clear skies. Skip it.
- Sat Aug 29, all day — Second straight day of rising pressure with an 8 mph E wind and no meaningful moon overlap; the recovery usually isn't done here until Sunday.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
The input places frontal passage "around Wednesday" for this region, but the static regional profile puts it roughly a day behind western Kentucky — treat late Wednesday into early Thursday as the realistic crossing and fish Wednesday morning, not Wednesday afternoon. Pressure falls Wednesday, bottoms Thursday, then rises through both Friday and Saturday before flattening Sunday and falling again Monday. Winds stay light (5–8 mph) through Saturday, then build to 12 mph SW Sunday and Monday. No water-temperature trend was provided for this region.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Rough River Lake — Only a general 8–18 ft depth range is defined for this lake, so no summer-specific band was available; work the deeper end of that range on the creek channel drops near the dam, with standing timber in the upper end as the backup. Pool level swings matter as much as the weather here and no pool or release data was provided this week — verify before towing.
- Taylorsville Lake — The smallest and shallowest of the three (6–15 ft general range, no summer-specific band defined), so it will react to Wednesday's falling pressure fastest and also lock up hardest on Friday's bluebird spike. Stained water means the mid-lake standing timber stays the best afternoon option when the sun is high.
- Nolin River Lake — Clearer than the other two, so lean toward the deep end of its 8–20 ft general range and toward the Thursday dusk window rather than bright post-frontal light. Mid-to-upper lake standing timber and creek channel bends are the play.
South-Central Kentucky — Cumberland Lakes
Best Windows
- Wed Aug 26, 6:30–9:30 AM — Green River and Barren River — Falling pressure with a nearly dead 5 mph NNE wind, and these two shallower stained lakes react to the pre-frontal drop before Cumberland and Dale Hollow do.
- Thu Aug 27, dawn to 9:00 AM and 7:00 PM–dark — Lake Cumberland and Dale Hollow — Pressure bottoming, 7 mph SW, and the Full Moon's near-sunset rise gives the deep-water dusk bite a moon period to work with.
- Mon Aug 31, 6:30–9:00 AM — Pressure falling ahead of the next system with a manageable 8 mph SW wind across all four lakes.
Days to Avoid
- Wed Aug 26, midday into evening — Frontal passage, likely late Wednesday given this region's one-day lag. Wind swings NNE to SW through the pass.
- Fri Aug 28, all day — Bluebird day: fast-rising pressure, 8 mph NNE, clear skies. On clear, deep Cumberland and Dale Hollow this is the single worst kind of day of the whole two weeks.
- Sat Aug 29, all day — Still rising, 6 mph E, no moon overlap. The deep clear lakes lag the recovery, so expect Saturday to fish like an extension of Friday on Dale Hollow in particular.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
Wind is the friendliest in the state here all week — nothing above 8 mph from Tuesday through Monday — so the calls come down almost entirely to pressure and the Full Moon. Falling Wednesday, bottoming Thursday, rising Friday and Saturday, stable Sunday, falling Monday. The input lists passage "around Wednesday," and the region's one-day lag means late Wednesday is the more likely crossing. No water-temperature trend and no generation schedule were provided; Wolf Creek Dam releases drive the current near Cumberland's dam and are worth checking directly.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Green River Lake — Only a general 8–20 ft range is defined, so no summer-specific band was available; fish the deeper end on creek channel bends and standing timber. Pool level swings with rainfall here and no pool data was provided this week.
- Barren River Lake — The most forgiving option on Friday's bluebird day if you must go, because the riprap near the dam and the deeper brush give fish somewhere to sulk within reach — but Wednesday morning is the real window. General 8–20 ft range only.
- Lake Cumberland — Deep, clear highland reservoir: stay at the deep end of the 15–30 ft general range on standing timber and deep creek channel structure, and prioritize the Thursday dawn/dusk edges over anything in bright midday sun.
- Dale Hollow Lake — Exceptionally clear, so push deeper than you would anywhere else in the state at the same time of year — deep brush and bluff ends in the 15–30 ft band. Slowest lake in the region to respond to a pressure change, which is why its best window is Thursday, not Wednesday.
Eastern Kentucky — Cave Run Lake
Best Windows
- Wed Aug 26, 7:00–10:00 AM — Falling pressure with a light 7 mph SSE wind, and this region sits roughly two days behind western Kentucky, so the pre-frontal window here is the longest in the state.
- Thu Aug 27, 7:00 PM–dark — Pressure bottoming, 8 mph S, and the Full Moon rising near sunset. If the front is still lagging through Thursday, wait until the wind actually swings around to the north before you start.
- Mon Aug 31, 7:00–9:30 AM — Falling pressure ahead of the next system; 11 mph SW means fishing the wooded, protected upper arms rather than the main lake.
Days to Avoid
- Wed Aug 26 afternoon through Thu Aug 27 midday — The frontal passage window. The input says "around Wednesday" for every region, but this region's two-day lag makes a Thursday-morning crossing entirely plausible; whenever the wind swings to the north, that's the dead period.
- Fri Aug 28, all day — Bluebird day — pressure rising fast behind the front, 9 mph NNE, clear skies.
- Sat Aug 29, all day — Second consecutive rising-pressure day, 7 mph ENE, no moon period on the dawn or dusk edge. Not worth the drive.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
This is the last region in the state the front reaches. Pressure falls Wednesday, bottoms Thursday, rises Friday and Saturday, flattens Sunday and falls again Monday. Winds are light through Saturday (5–9 mph) and build to 10–11 mph SW Sunday and Monday. The one real uncertainty is passage timing: the provided datetime says Wednesday for every Kentucky region, while the two-day regional lag argues for Thursday here — plan Wednesday morning, and treat Thursday as pass-dependent. No water-temperature trend or pool/release data was provided.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Cave Run Lake — Only a general 10–22 ft depth range is defined for this lake, so no summer-specific band was available; work the deeper end on creek channel bends in the upper lake arms and the standing timber along the wooded shoreline. Corps pool level swings matter here and none was provided this week.
Week 2 — Next Week Lower — early outlook, expect this to shift
This is an early look, not a schedule. Forecast reliability drops off past about a week out, so read the calls below as which part of the week to lean toward — not which hour to book. Frontal timing in particular is soft here: the inputs give a rough day per region and nothing more. Check next week's report for the confirmed windows. Forecast data was only provided through Monday Sep 7; nothing was available for Sep 8–9, and no generation or pool-level schedules were available for any lake — those are rarely published this far ahead.
Western Kentucky — Kentucky Lake
Best Windows
- Thursday Sep 3, early — The only bottoming-pressure day of the week here and the only one with wind under the mid-teens, but Last Quarter lands the same day so there's no moon help.
- Tuesday Sep 1, early, ahead of the front — Stable pressure with a 9 mph SW wind before a front expected around Tuesday. Worth a morning if you're already there, not worth planning around.
- Saturday Sep 5, morning — Rising pressure, 11 mph SSW, waning moon. The calmest of the weekend options and nothing more than that.
Days to Avoid
- Wednesday Sep 2 — Rising pressure right behind a Tuesday front; that's the bluebird setup and it should be treated as a skip.
- Friday Sep 4 — 19 mph WSW on rising pressure with a waning moon. Worst combination in either week on this lake.
- Monday Sep 7 — Pressure bottoming, which normally reads well, but 17 mph SW wind against a waning crescent is the weak-moon-plus-high-wind skip.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
A windy, rising-pressure week as the input reads it: a front around Tuesday, then rising Wednesday, a brief bottoming Thursday, and rising again Friday through Sunday with wind in the 11–19 mph SW range most of that stretch. Pressure bottoms again Monday but with 17 mph behind it. No water-temperature trend was provided, and no TVA generation schedule was available for next week — on this lake that's the single biggest unknown in the whole outlook, and it can override everything above.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Kentucky Lake — Still a summer 15–25 ft ledge and standing-timber pattern. With this much sustained SW wind in the forecast, the practical decision most days is which ledges you can hold on, and TVA current will decide that as much as the wind — check the release schedule the morning of, since none was published in time for this report.
North-Central Kentucky
Best Windows
- Thursday Sep 3, early — Falling pressure ahead of a front expected around Thursday, with the lightest workable wind of the second half of the week (10 mph SSE).
- Friday Sep 4, early — Pressure bottoming right behind the front; 13 mph SW keeps you in the protected creek arms, and the waning moon offers nothing extra.
- Wednesday Sep 2, dawn — Rising pressure, which is a strike against it, but 7 mph ESE is the calmest day of the week here. A fallback, not a target.
Days to Avoid
- Tuesday Sep 1 — Bottoming pressure looks inviting on paper, but 17 mph SW with a waning gibbous moon is the weak-moon-plus-high-wind skip on lakes this narrow.
- Saturday Sep 5 — Rising pressure behind the Thursday front with 12 mph WSW; the bluebird risk lands on the weekend this time.
- Monday Sep 7 — 17 mph SSW against a waning crescent. Skip regardless of the falling pressure.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
The inputs put frontal passage around Thursday here — later in the week than western Kentucky, consistent with this region's normal one-day lag, though at this range the day itself could move either way. Pressure bottoms Tuesday, rises Wednesday, falls Thursday, bottoms Friday, then rises through the weekend. Wind is the story: 17 mph Tuesday, calm Wednesday, then 10–17 mph out of the southwest quadrant Thursday through Monday. No water-temperature trends and no pool-level data were provided for any lake in this region.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Rough River Lake — General 8–18 ft range only; no summer-specific band defined. Creek channel drops near the dam are the more wind-tolerant option in a week forecast this breezy.
- Taylorsville Lake — Shallowest lake in the region (6–15 ft general range), so it should respond to Thursday's pressure drop first and also be the first to go flat when pressure rises Saturday. Its stained water is an advantage on the brighter, high-pressure days.
- Nolin River Lake — Clearer water argues for the deep end of its 8–20 ft general range and for the earliest part of the Thursday and Friday windows rather than mid-morning.
South-Central Kentucky — Cumberland Lakes
Best Windows
- Tuesday Sep 1, early — Pressure bottoming at the start of the week with a moderate 10 mph WSW wind; the shallower stained lakes (Green River, Barren River) should show it first.
- Thursday Sep 3, early — Bottoming again at 11 mph SSW. Last Quarter falls the same day, so no moon assist — this is a pressure-only call.
- Monday Sep 7, early — Falling pressure ahead of a front the inputs place "around Monday," with 12 mph SSW. Directionally the strongest end-of-week option, but the softest on timing.
Days to Avoid
- Wednesday Sep 2 — Rising pressure between two bottoming days; the classic in-between day that reads like a bluebird, and Dale Hollow's clear water makes it worse.
- Saturday Sep 5 and Sunday Sep 6 — Two straight rising-pressure days sliding into a flat high, with a waning crescent moon and nothing on the dawn or dusk edge. Weakest weekend of the two-week span in this region.
- Whenever the "Monday" front actually crosses — The input names Monday without specifying whether that's the front arriving Sep 7 or one clearing just before Tuesday Sep 1; if it lands on Sep 7, the afternoon of that day becomes the passage skip and the morning window closes early.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
Wind stays the mildest in the state again — 6 to 12 mph all week, nothing above the 15 mph skip threshold — which makes this the most fishable region of Week 2 by default. Pressure bottoms Tuesday, rises Wednesday, bottoms Thursday, sits stable Friday, rises Saturday and Sunday, then falls Monday. The frontal timing input reads only "around Monday" and is ambiguous about which Monday; treat both ends of the week as pass-adjacent. No water-temperature trends and no Wolf Creek generation schedule were provided.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Green River Lake — General 8–20 ft range only, no summer-specific band. The smaller, stained water here turns over on a pressure change faster than Cumberland or Dale Hollow, which is why Tuesday is a live call on this lake and marginal on the deep ones.
- Barren River Lake — General 8–20 ft range. With light wind all week, the brush piles and creek channel structure out away from the bank are reachable most days — a rare thing in this two-week span.
- Lake Cumberland — 15–30 ft general range; deep and clear, so it will be the slowest to react to Tuesday's and Thursday's bottoming pressure and the best candidate for the very first and last light of those days.
- Dale Hollow Lake — Push deeper than the numbers suggest — exceptionally clear water, deep brush and bluff ends. Skip it entirely on the Saturday–Sunday rising-pressure stretch; clear deep lakes punish bright high-pressure days hardest.
Eastern Kentucky — Cave Run Lake
Best Windows
- Thursday Sep 3, early — Falling pressure with a 10 mph E wind. Directionally the better half of the week, though the waning moon adds nothing.
- Friday Sep 4, early — Bottoming pressure at 10 mph W; the natural follow-through if Thursday's drop verifies.
- Wednesday Sep 2, dawn — Rising pressure works against it, but 5 mph E is the calmest morning of the week and this lake's wooded upper arms fish well when it's dead calm.
Days to Avoid
- Tuesday Sep 1 — 13 mph WSW with a front the input places "around Monday" — meaning Tuesday here may still be inside the passage or immediate post-passage window, given this region's two-day lag.
- Saturday Sep 5 and Sunday Sep 6 — Two consecutive rising-pressure days into a flat high with a waning crescent moon. No factor working in your favor either day.
- Monday Sep 7 — Falling pressure but 14 mph SW and another front arriving; too much timing risk this far out to plan a trip around.
Weather outlook & lake-by-lake notes
Weather Outlook
Bottoming Tuesday, rising Wednesday, falling Thursday, bottoming Friday, then rising Saturday and Sunday before falling Monday. Winds are moderate throughout (5–14 mph) with nothing above the skip threshold. The frontal input says "around Monday" for this region, which sits oddly against its normal two-day lag behind western Kentucky — at nine days out that discrepancy isn't resolvable, so treat Thursday/Friday as the directional target and expect next week's report to firm it up. No water-temperature trend or pool-level data was provided.
Lake-by-Lake Notes
- Cave Run Lake — General 10–22 ft range only, no summer-specific band defined; creek channel bends in the upper arms and standing timber remain the pattern. Corps pool level is the wildcard and none was published for next week yet.
Bottom Line
If you can only fish once in the next two weeks, take Thursday, August 27. Every region in the state shows bottoming pressure behind Wednesday's front, every region has wind at 8 mph or less, and the Full Moon lands that day with moonrise near sunset — so both the dawn and dusk edges have something behind them. Western Kentucky gets the cleanest version of it (the front hits there first, so Thursday is fully post-passage); Cave Run gets the shakiest, since the two-day regional lag means the front may still be crossing there Thursday morning, which is why its Thursday call is the dusk window rather than dawn. The day to skip is Friday, August 28 — a textbook bluebird day statewide, with pressure spiking behind the front under clear skies, and it's worst on clear deep water like Dale Hollow and Lake Cumberland. Week 1 is clearly the stronger of the two weeks: Week 2 is dominated by rising pressure and 12–19 mph southwest wind, with three separate regions carrying a weak-moon-plus-high-wind skip. If you have to fish Week 2, the Cumberland lakes are the pick — they're the only region forecast to stay under 15 mph all week — and Thursday September 3 is the most consistent day across the state, though that's an early read that can move. One caveat that outranks all of the above: every lake in Kentucky in this report is current-driven, and no generation or pool-level schedules were provided for either week. Check the release before you launch.